|Musings on what it takes to be successful at this game.
||[Jul. 5th, 2009|01:04 am]
I'm starting over with online poker again. In the past month or two one thing has become extremely clear: It doesn't matter how good I am, I will never be successful without adhering to bankroll management. Seriously. Until I do, I'm just gambling.|
Here's a snippet from a post I made on PSORG:
Look, I know I blow up rolls and have made mistakes... but I've been constantly increasing the amount of profits from poker each year since 2006. 2005 was negative, 2006 was slightly positive, 2007 was a little better than 2006, and 2008 was a five figure year. 2009 will be too, hopefully a little better. Have I been able to keep a roll online for a long period of time? Not yet... but I'm getting there. It's a learning process. Three years ago I couldn't keep a bankroll larger than 1k. Now 1k is chump change.
My recent blowup can be attributed to three factors:
1. Stupid gambling. Playing high limit cash games, where I may or may not be +EV but it doesn't matter since I should always expect negative variance to hit first.
2. A pretty awful run in MTTs in June. Lots of deep runs but no final tables. That's just bad luck when you look at how I went out/why etc.
3. Trying to beat cash games within my bankroll... I still haven't beat NL yet. I didn't have that big of a sample and I'd like to attribute it to negative variance, but I'm not sure so I don't have a whole lot of confidence in my cash game ability yet.
I tried to beat NL cash games by jumping into NL100, and it didn't go so well. That's fine. I'm going to go the ultra-conservative-makeit3bets-approved route... 40 buy-ins for a level. That means I'm going to put $1k online in a few days, and start playing 25NL. The most important thing is truly sticking to my rules... and rewarding myself after 1k profit at 25NL with a jump to 50NL.
I might move back to tournaments on a different site in the future, but for now, I need some success, and this is how I'm going to do it.
I want to play 40,000 hands by the end of the month at 25NL and be up $1k. I think that's quite do-able and that's the plan.